AMERICAN SOCIAL CYCLES AND GENERATIONAL ARCHETYPES: PROJECTING U.S.–CHINA RELATIONS UNDER A SECOND TRUMP PRESIDENCY (2025–2029)

Abstract

This article examines how American social cycles and generational archetypes shape U.S. foreign-policy behavior toward China during Donald Trump’s second presidency (2025–2029). Drawing on Strauss–Howe generational cycle theory and Zhang & Chen’s dual-cycle framework, the study situates the 2025–2029 period within a late-stage Crisis turning characterized by Prophet-led leadership. Addressing a gap in international-relations scholarship, the article integrates sociocultural generational analysis into projections of U.S.–China relations, complementing structural approaches to great-power rivalry. Methodologically, the study operationalizes generational archetypes, turnings, and leadership succession patterns to assess strategic orientations under Trump’s anticipated second term, treating this presidency as a critical inflection point in American social and political cycles. The findings indicate that generational cohorts function as mediating variables between systemic pressures and elite decision-making. Boomer “Prophet” leadership intensifies crisis-driven confrontation, while emerging Generation X and Millennial cohorts introduce alternative preferences for pragmatic stabilization or managed competitive coexistence. Building on projections derived from the 2025–2029 period, the article outlines three post-presidency scenario pathways for U.S.–China relations — post-crisis stabilization, structured strategic co-opetition, and sustained ideological rivalry. The study contributes a generationally informed framework for projecting U.S.–China relations under a second Trump presidency and highlights how domestic social cycles influence the longer-term trajectory of American grand strategy.