GLOBAL FRAMES AND LOCAL REALITIES: HOW EXPERTS OUTSIDE AND INSIDE CENTRAL ASIA ASSESS THE REGION’S TRAJECTORY

Abstract

This article offers a comparative analysis of how Central Asia is assessed by major global actors and by regional experts themselves. Drawing on fourteen policy reports published in 2025 by leading think tanks in the United States (US), the European Union (EU), China, India, and the United Kingdom (UK), as well as two expert surveys conducted by the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies (KazISS) in 2023 and 2025, the study reveals both convergences and divergences in strategic narratives. External assessments often frame Central Asia as a logistical corridor, energy supplier, and zone of geopolitical contestation, while regional experts emphasize internal vulnerabilities-such as water stress, infrastructure fragility, and resource dependency-as key development challenges. The study also examines indigenous analytical contributions from Central Asian platforms which articulate a distinctive epistemological perspective on sovereignty, diversification, and regional agency. By integrating external strategic visions with regional perceptions, the article argues that a nuanced understanding of Central Asia’s trajectory requires attention not only to geopolitical interests.