ECONOMIC INFLUENCE OF CHINA AND THE USA IN CENTRAL ASIA: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS

Abstract

The article provides a comprehensive comparative analysis of the trade and economic relations of Central Asian countries with Peoples Republic of China (PRC) and the United States of America (USA) over the past decade. The study is based on a benchmarking approach and covers the dynamics of foreign trade, the structure of exports and imports, investment flows, and infrastructure projects. It is shown that during this period China has become the leading external economic partner of the region, significantly increasing the volume of trade and emerging as the main source of imports as well as one of the largest markets for raw materials. In contrast to China’s extensive and multi-layered strategy, the economic presence of the United States remains limited and primarily niche-oriented. American engagement is concentrated in high-tech sectors and resource-based investments, particularly in Kazakhstan’s oil and gas industry. At the same time, recent years have seen an institutional strengthening of the U.S. model through the mechanisms of «C5+1», «B5+1», and the Economic Resilience Initiative for Central Asia (ERICEN), as well as support for the development of the Trans-Caspian transport corridor and cooperation on critical minerals. A comparison of the two models demonstrates a shift in the regional geo-economic balance, while Central Asian states continue to show strong interest in multi-vector foreign policy and diversification of economic partnerships.