POLITICAL RISKS OF POWER TRANSIT IN CENTRAL ASIAN COUNTRIES

Abstract

The article presents a comparative analysis of political risks associated with power transitions or their absence in Central Asian countries. The theoretical framework is a typology that distinguishes three types of political culture: adaptive-paternalistic, reflexive-skeptical, and network self-organization, along with their corresponding risks: institutional uncertainty, expectation gap, and social mobilization. Particular attention is paid to latent forms of risk. Drawing on evidence from five countries, the study demonstrates that different transition models: managed transition, elite consensus, revolutionary transition, closed transition, as well as the absence of transition generate distinct configurations of risks. The proposed typology helps explain these differences in risk configurations through the dominant type of political culture.